6 August 2025
A collaboration between PhD candidate Michael Miller and illustrator Jean Donaldson. Edited by Jonathan Burgess.
How many people in Aotearoa speak te reo Māori? This may seem like a simple question to answer, but what looks simple often hides complexity.
Most of the data we have on the number of speakers of te reo Māori comes from census data and self-reported surveys. However, self-reporting brings in a layer of uncertainty. Just as someone might proudly claim to “speak Spanish” after a 200-day Duolingo streak, while someone else who speaks more fluently may downplay their ability, people often overestimate or underestimate their proficiency in Māori language surveys, too.
What’s even trickier is trying to get a clear idea of how many speakers we will have in the coming decades. In 2018, the government set the ambitious goal of achieving one million speakers by 2040. It’s a bold and audacious goal, but are we even on track to achieve this? What policies or interventions might help to get us there?
I’ve been working with a team at Te Pūnaha Matatini to create a mathematical model to examine the trajectory of the Māori language in the coming decades. This model incorporates different levels of proficiency and explores the percentage of people moving up and down this proficiency ladder, through learning the language at home, learning te reo through school and tertiary studies, and losing the language due to lack of use.
By feeding in survey data (imperfect yet invaluable), the model lets us estimate the current trajectory of the language and explore different possible futures. It’s a bit like a “choose your own adventure” story, but one where our choices represent the potential decisions made by the communities and policymakers in Aotearoa. What happens if we continue with the status quo? What happens if we focus on upskilling our teachers in te reo? What happens if we focus on supporting whānau to raise their tamariki in te reo? What happens if these initiatives are defunded, leaving learners without the support they desperately need?
These trajectories rarely follow a linear path: they’re shaped by feedback from the consequences of our choices, creating a non-linear path with twists and turns. For example, a decision to fund reo Māori programmes could see more people learn te reo, making the language more visible, which in turn makes it more accessible and easier to learn. Even a small policy change could spark a huge surge in language learning. However, the opposite is also true: if the number of speakers declines, so do the opportunities to learn and use the language.
Our model aims to capture these complex, interconnected dynamics, helping us better understand the non-linearity of these trajectories.
This sort of modelling can help policymakers and communities to better understand how to allocate resources to effectively and efficiently revitalise te reo Māori. This type of decision-making has real-world consequences on the everyday experience of reo Māori learners and speakers across Aotearoa.
For example, consider Anika, a young mother who does not speak te reo Māori fluently but wants to raise her children in the language. Whether she finds support in the form of reo in early childhood education, bilingual playground signage, or reo classes that are accessible for parents with pēpi, could determine whether her dreams for her tamariki become reality.
This story reminds us of how policy decisions affect the real lives of people across Aotearoa. Revitalising a language is more than just numbers; it’s about preserving identity and belonging. Language carries a community’s stories, history, values, and worldview. Te reo Māori is more than just a means of communication; it is a taonga, a living treasure, essential for cultural identity and belonging. As the whakataukī goes: “Ko te reo te mauri o te mana Māori” – the language is the life essence of mana Māori.
Things look more hopeful now than they did ten or 15 years ago. Over the past decade or so, enrolments in tertiary-level Māori language courses have almost doubled from around 19,000 enrollments in 2013 to almost 38,000 enrollments in 2023, attesting to the growing commitment within Aotearoa to learning te reo Māori. While this growth is encouraging, the language still has a long path ahead.
When Te Tiriti o Waitangi was signed in 1840, no one could have predicted the change that would happen to te reo Māori in the coming centuries. Now, with 2040 on the horizon and the goal of one million speakers in sight, we find ourselves at a pivotal point. With our 21st-century technology, we can attempt to predict the number of speakers we will have in 2040, but it all comes down to the actions we take today.
The choices we make today will affect the voice of tomorrow.
Michael Miller has been exploring the trajectory of te reo Māori as a PhD candidate on Te Pūnaha Matatini’s Te ara o te reo Māori | The trajectory of the Māori language project.
Jean Donaldson is a designer and illustrator who works with Toi Āria: Design for Public Good. She is based in Te Whanganui-a-Tara. You can see more of her work at https://jeanmanudesign.com/.
Jonathan Burgess is an award-winning communications specialist who specialises in translating technical detail for a general audience.