COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa

Te Pūnaha Matatini investigators (as well as many others) have been modelling COVID-19 and its projected impacts since January 2020. At COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa, we have built a cross-organisation, transdisciplinary, dedicated, and committed group of academic researchers and scientists to help Aotearoa New Zealand face the pandemic.


Our COVID-19 modelling programme is underpinned by Te Tiriti o Waitangi, fast and committed peer review, and ethics. These parameters ensure that the modelling developed by the broad team is uniquely equipped to provide scientifically robust results which are fit for Aotearoa New Zealand and support public policy and decision-making.


COVID-19 Modelling Aotearoa arose under the leadership of Te Pūnaha Matatini investigators, and has been a standalone programme hosted by the University of Auckland since January 2021. Early in the pandemic we were funded by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, and we are currently funded by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet.



FluTracking incidence calculation methods

This report details the methods used for calculating the estimated weekly incidence of COVID-19-like and influenza-like illness in Aotearoa New Zealand, using data from the FluTracking weekly survey.

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COVID-19 network modelling trilogy

Three network modelling reports that explore policy settings and possible interventions to prepare for the emergence of COVID-19, whether Alert Level 2.5 can be effectively used for future outbreaks, and a large number of combinations of transmission reduction interventions.

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New interactive app simulates COVID-19 spread

A New Zealand-specific interactive epidemic simulation app developed by Dr Audrey Lustig, Associate Investigator at Te Pūnaha Matatini, and hosted by the University of Auckland’s Centre for eResearch, has just been released.

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