26 October 2021

Report provided 1 September 2021, this version published after internal peer review 15 October 2021

We use the contagion network model to project case numbers and thus hospital and critical care numbers for the current Auckland outbreak of August 2021, with current vaccination coverage.

The simulations used here model spread though a population with the demographic composition for Auckland. Hospitalisation rates are then shifted to account for the case data from the current outbreak, where the majority of infections to date are Pasifika, for whom the hospitalization rate is around 2.7-3 times higher.