Probability of elimination for COVID-19 in Aotearoa New Zealand
Executive Summary
Our model of COVID-19 spread estimates that after 2-3 weeks of no new reported cases, there is a 95% probability that COVID-19 has been eliminated in New Zealand.
A 95% probability of elimination is achieved after 10 consecutive days with no new reported cases under an optimistic scenario with high detection of clinical cases, and after 22 days under a more pessimistic scenario with low case detection.
