NEW RESEARCH — LINK TO FULL PDF HERE

22 April 2020

 

Effect of Alert Level 4 on Reff : review of international COVID-19 cases

 


Executive Summary

  • In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, countries around the world are implementing a range of intervention measures, such as population-wide social distancing and case isolation, with the goal of reducing the spread of the virus.
  • Reff, the effective reproduction number, measures the average number of people that will be infected by a single contagious individual. A value of Reff > 1 suggests that an outbreak will occur, while Reff < 1 suggests the virus will die out.
  • Comparing Reff in an early outbreak phase (no or low-level interventions implemented) with a later phase (moderate to high interventions) indicates how effective these measures are for reducing Reff.
  • We estimate early-phase and late-phase Reff values for COVID-19 outbreaks in 25 countries (or provinces/states). Results suggest interventions equivalent to NZ’s Alert Level 3-4 can successfully reduce Reff below the threshold for outbreak.

 


Appendix

LINK TO APPENDIX HERE.